| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Bethune-Cookman | 42-9 | 1188.0 | +0.0 | 1188.0 | 14.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Penn State | 0-34 | 1188.0 | -1.1 | 1186.9 | 1.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 38-28 | 1186.9 | +28.4 | 1215.3 | 59.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Delaware | 16-38 | 1215.3 | -18.3 | 1197.0 | 16.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UConn | 10-51 | 1197.0 | -13.7 | 1183.3 | 20.9% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 25-6 | 1183.3 | +78.9 | 1262.2 | 9.5% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 26-45 | 1262.2 | -39.5 | 1222.7 | 38.8% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | L | Missouri State | 21-28 | 1222.7 | -10.7 | 1212.0 | 16.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 56-30 | 1212.0 | +39.1 | 1251.1 | 61.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-27 | 1251.1 | +53.2 | 1304.3 | 30.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 27-21 | 1304.3 | +62.8 | 1367.1 | 20.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 56-16 | 1367.1 | +36.0 | 1403.1 | 65.2% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | UTSA | 20-57 | 1403.1 | -35.6 | 1367.5 | 41.9% |